Chart: CME U.S. Midwest HRC Futures Forward Curve (as of Aug 21, 2025). Source: Steel Market Update & CME.
Summary (TL;DR)
U.S. steel prices have stabilized in the low–mid $800s/short ton this summer. The BLS Steel Mill Products PPI is 308.1 (Jul ’25) after a spring pop. On June 4, 2025, Section 232 steel tariffs increased from 25% to 50% effective June 4, 2025 (UK remains at 25%). Freight is a mild tailwind versus 2024 as diesel eases. Net: expect a range‑bound market into early 2026, but delivered building costs still vary by ZIP‑code loads (wind/snow/seismic), span, accessories, and schedule.
Chart: CME U.S. Midwest HRC Futures Forward Curve (as of Aug 21, 2025). Source: Steel Market Update & CME.
Steel Futures and Your Building Price
Steel futures are trending upward through spring 2026, and history shows most buyers place their orders in Q4 to prepare for spring construction. That seasonal surge in demand typically leads to limited supply, longer lead times, and higher prices across the industry. With the 50% steel tariff now in effect and steel mill indices already stabilizing in the mid-$800s per ton, waiting to buy could mean paying more for the same building later. After several years of slower construction spending, pent-up demand is adding additional pressure on pricing and production capacity. Buying your building today can help you avoid next year’s increases and secure your delivery window before schedules fill up.
What Really Drives Your Building Price
Domestic Factors
- The strength of the United States dollar
- Demand for steel used in any product
- Tariffs & trade routing (S232 at 50%; UK at 25%; expanded derivative coverage via BIS inclusion process)
- ZIP‑code engineering loads (wind/snow/seismic) and code adoptions (e.g., 2024 IBC referencing ASCE 7‑22 tornado provisions for certain Risk Categories)
- Freight & fuel (lower diesel is a modest cost relief)
- Accessories & schedule (doors, insulation, mezzanines, expedited lead times)
Global Factors
- General condition of the world economy
- Natural disasters
- Wars and other political events
Outlook: Late‑2025 into 2026
- Base Case: Sideways to modestly firmer vs. today (low/mid‑$800s through year‑end; upper‑$800s into mid‑2026 per the futures curve).
- Upside Risks: non‑res construction acceleration, auto rebound, reduced imports.
- Downside Risks: policy shifts to S232, weak demand, faster‑than‑expected capacity ramp.
Frequently Asked Forecast Questions
Will the 50% steel tariff raise my building cost?
It can for imported components or kits; domestic content is less directly affected, but tariffs tend to support U.S. price levels. We model tariff impacts in your quote.
How much do fuel prices matter for delivery?
Delivery is a smaller share than materials, but lower diesel reduces delivered cost—especially for long‑haul sites.
Why does my ZIP code change the price?
Loads and code cycles vary by location. The 2024 IBC references ASCE 7‑22 tornado provisions for certain buildings, which can change required steel weight and connections.
What else affects total cost beyond steel?
Accessories (doors, insulation, mezzanines), foundation complexity, schedule/lead time, taxes, and site logistics all contribute to the delivered price.
Citations and Article Sources
- GenSteel current forecast page: https://gensteel.com/building-faqs/steel-building-prices/forecast/
- BLS PPI – Steel Mill Products (WPU1017): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WPU1017 and BLS regional highlights table (Jul 2025 = 308.102): https://www.bls.gov/regions/southeast/data/xg-tables/ro4xgppihi.htm
- CME U.S. Midwest HRC quotes (front months): https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/ferrous/hrc-steel.quotes.html
- Steel Market Update – HRC forward curve (Aug 21, 2025): https://www.steelmarketupdate.com/2025/08/21/hr-futures-forward-curve-shifts-lower-structure-maintains/
- Trading Economics – HRC spot (Aug 29, 2025 ~ $804/t): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/hrc-steel
- White House Proclamation (June 3, 2025) – Section 232 to 50% (effective June 4, 2025): https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/06/adjusting-imports-of-aluminum-and-steel-into-the-united-states/
- CBP 232 FAQs (updated Jun 11, 2025): https://www.cbp.gov/trade/programs-administration/entry-summary/232-tariffs-aluminum-and-steel-faqs
- EIA STEO (Aug 2025 PDF) – retail diesel ~ $3.70/gal in 2025: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf
- Tax Foundation – State & local sales tax rates (mid‑2025): https://taxfoundation.org/data/all/state/sales-tax-rates/
- ICC / ASCE 7‑22 tornado loads in 2024 IBC: https://www.iccsafe.org/building-safety-journal/bsj-technical/2024international-building-code-tornado-loads-and-community-based-implementation and https://www.asce.org/publications-and-news/civil-engineering-source/civil-engineering-magazine/article/2022/02/asce-7-22-wind-load-standard-adds-tornado-chapter
